Gate to Wire

The Kentucky Derby points system speed myth

April 28, 2022 Season 3 Episode 20
Gate to Wire
The Kentucky Derby points system speed myth
Show Notes

Do you have to be first or second turning for home in The Kentucky Derby to win since they changed to the points system? A lot of handicappers, especially statistics gurus, seem to think so. 

The Kentucky Derby changed from an earnings based system to a points based system for the 2013 running of The Run For The Roses. This kept some sprinters with high enough earnings to race in The Derby from competing in the race. It also kept the fillies out unless they race colts and earn enough points prior to the First Saturday in May. 

There is no question, the charts certainly tell us we have had our share of winners who were one, two, turning for home. Can you still win from far off the pace? Is there another reason for the results we've seen besides the point system change?

Long time pro Jonathan Stettin weighs in with his thoughts on the subject. You'll also hear our co host Michael Vale weigh in. Jon recently interviewed Mike Smith, the legendary Hall of Fame, Triple Crown winning, Breeders's Cup winning record holder what he thought about that theory. Mike won the Derby near the lead with Justify and from off the pace with Giacomo. Jonathan shares Mike's thoughts or you can check them out yourself HERE

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